The equatorial Pacific is undergoing a rapid, significant warming phase. NOAA officially issued an El Niño Advisory earlier this month, confirming that El Niño conditions have developed and are strengthening quickly, as we discussed back in April as we continued to monitor the transition of sub- equatorial temperatures.
The current sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the specific ENSO regions reflect this transition:
Niño 3.4 (East-Central Pacific): This critical monitoring region has crossed firmly into El Niño territory. As of mid-June 2026, the weekly SST anomaly here has climbed to +0.7°C to +1.7°C (with the mid-June weekly index spiking sharply to +1.7°C, a value last seen in January 2024. This indicates a rapid transition toward a moderate, and potentially very strong, El Niño event.
Niño 1+2 (Far Eastern Pacific / Coast of South America): The warming is even more pronounced in this eastern boundary zone. The latest official weekly anomaly in the Niño 1+2 region stands at an exceptional +3°c a value last seen in late June 2023.
This intense coastal warming in the east, combined with a substantial reservoir of subsurface heat and weakened trade winds, suggests that this El Niño is highly likely to continue intensifying as we head into the autumn and winter months.
The question is when will it peak? We suggest between NDJ with a peak value of around 2.75°c and a peak weekly value of 3°c in Dec.
Written on 27th June 2026
David I Birch
No comments:
Post a Comment